At a point, political narrative must yield to political intelligence, chronology, and verifiable electoral logic.
With due respect to Governor Dapo Abiodun, it is necessary to interrogate and correct the emerging suggestion that he played a decisive role in the emergence of Otunba Gbenga Daniel as Senator representing Ogun East in 2023.
That claim does not align with the sequence of political events, the structure of mobilisation, or the empirical realities of the election cycle.
THE DECISION TO CONTEST
When Otunba Gbenga Daniel began to seriously evaluate a return to elective politics, he convened a closed-circle consultation with trusted political associates.
At that time, he was a member of the Peoples Democratic Party. Participants in those discussions cut across party lines—PDP and APC alike—reflecting the strategic, rather than partisan, nature of the deliberation.
The core question was not sentimental; it was strategic:
Should OGD return to elective politics, where should he contest, and under what political architecture would his candidacy be most viable?
After extensive political analysis, consensus emerged that he should contest the Ogun East Senatorial District.
This was not an emotional recommendation. It was a reading of political geography, historical neglect patterns, and governance deficits in the district since his exit from office as Governor.
The assessment was clear: Ogun East required a figure with both institutional memory and political capacity to re-energise its developmental trajectory.
WHY APC?
The most consequential strategic decision was party alignment.
Although the PDP had structural presence in parts of Ogun East, we advised against a PDP senatorial bid.
The reasoning was multi-layered.
First, the national political configuration at the time, particularly the ascendancy of Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidential project, required alignment with the emerging federal power structure. OGD’s long-standing political relationship with Tinubu was a relevant variable in that calculus.
Second, we assessed that an APC platform would not only be electorally competitive but would also integrate Ogun East more directly into the federal political mainstream.
Third, there was a deliberate objective: to reposition APC as a credible, competitive force in a district where political loyalty had historically been fluid.
OGD accepted this strategic counsel.
His entry into APC was therefore not opportunistic; it was a calculated alignment with a broader national and regional power configuration.
THE 2023 SENATORIAL ELECTION
The outcome of the election provides its own political intelligence.
OGD became the first senatorial candidate in Ogun East to surpass 100,000 votes in a general election, based on the figures under reference.
This was not a marginal victory. It was a structural one.
The PDP candidate also recorded significant votes, confirming that the contest was competitive and not a one-party sweep.
This is critical:
The result cannot be reduced to a simple “party wave” explanation. It reflects candidate-specific mobilisation capacity.
In the gubernatorial election held shortly after, Governor Dapo Abiodun reportedly secured just over 80,000 votes in the same senatorial district and lost in seven of nine local government areas.
From a political analytics standpoint, this divergence is significant.
If one assumes gubernatorial influence translated directly into senatorial success, the data does not support that hypothesis.
THE CAMPAIGN WAS STRUCTURALLY GRASSROOTS-DRIVEN
OGD’s campaign architecture was not remote-controlled or elite-driven.
It was physically embedded in the district.
He traversed all 103 wards of Ogun East, engaging directly with local political actors, community stakeholders, and voter blocs.
The campaign also executed approximately 13 local government-level rallies, including high-density political mobilisations in Sagamu and Ijebu Ode.
This was not symbolic campaigning. It was a full spectrum grassroots deployment.
Gov Dapo Abiodun was formally invited to key events. According to field accounts, he did not attend.
Conversely, OGD participated in selected Apc engagements in the spirit of party cohesion and broader electoral consolidation.
This distinction matters: participation in a party optics in not equivalent to ownership of campaign structures.
THE AKARIGBO PALACE FLAG-OFF
The former flag-off of the senatorial campaign at Akarigbo palace is instructive.
Governor Dapo Abiodun was invited as a Special Guest Honour. He neither attended nor according to organisers, delegated representation.
There were also comtemporaneous reports of informal discouragement directed at certain party officials, and civil servants regarding participating in OGD linked political events.
Whether viewed as administrative caution or political distancing, the signal was one of opetational sponsorship.
The analytical question therefore remains:
If political structure is being actively supported, why is its flagship campaign not visibly integrated into the state’s party machinery.
THE SENATORIAL PRIMARY
I
At Itoro Hall, i served as OGD main agent at the Apc party senatorial primary.
The primary was in progress when OGD received a call from Gov Dapo Abiodun requesting his immediate attention at Awujale palace.
OGD personal informed me as his agent before leaving and proceeded to Awujale palace to attend to the matter.
Voting began with Ogun Waterside, followed by Remo North. As the third local government was underway. Dr Ipaye walked in and announced the withdrawal of Senator Lekan Mustapha.
After complications of voting by all the nine local governments, the votes were then collated. OGD received decisive and unambiguous victory.
From operational standpoint, the outcome reflected preparation, delegate alignment, and pre-existing political capital- not last minute intervention.
THE ALLEGED LAST-MINUTE INTERVENTION
Political corridors carried narratives suggesting that, upon receiving intelligence of OGD likely dominance, Governor Abiodun engaged the late Awujale to explore political de-escalation or alignment with Senator Lekan Mustapha. Whether every element of that account is verifiable is secondary to the strategic facts; OGD’S support base was already structurally sufficient to determine the outcome.
No elite-level intervention can substitute for ward-level mobilisation or manufacture six-figure electoral returns.
POLITICAL CAUSATION AND VS POLITICAL COINCIDENCE
It is important to distinguish correlation from causation. Political actors may interact, consult, or even align tactically. However, electoral authorship is determined by who builds the structure that produces votes. Governor Abiodun may have had political interactions with OGD during the cycle. That is normal in competitive politics. But interaction is not sponsorship.
Engagement is not ownership.
And proximity is not causality.
The senatorial victory was the product of OGD’s political capital, strategic party realignment , grassroots mobilisation architecture, and voter-level acceptance.
THE 2019 CONTEXT
Historical balance is essential. In 2019, OGD, then in PDP, publicly supported Dapo Abiodun’s gubernatorial ambition.
That intervention had measurable political value in Ogun State, contributing to Abiodun’s narrow lowest margin of victory in Ogun state.
If political reciprocity is being debated, then the ledger must be complete. Selective memory is not political analysis; it is narrative engineering.
THE CORE POLITICAL QUESTION
The issue is not personal affinity or rivalry. It is whether retrospective narratives should override electoral evidence and documented political processes.
Multiple actors contributed to OGD’s senatorial journey:
- Strategic advisers who shaped the initial decision.
- Political actors who recommended APC alignment
- Grassroots organisers across 103 wards
- Campaign coordinators across 11 state constituencies in Ogun East
- 13 local government rallies
- Party agents at primary
- Abd ultimately, the electorate itself.
Erasing these in favour of single- actor attribution is analytically unsound.
WAS GOVERNOR ABIODUN RESPONSIBLE FOR OGD BECOMING SENATOR?
Based on direct participation in the process, the answer is clear;
NO.
He did not design the senatorial strategy.
He did not structure the ward-level mobilisation.
He did not drive the APC alignment decision.
He did not manage the campaign architecture
He did not serve as agent in the primary.
And he did not deliver the electoral votes.
THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT OF POLITICAL TENSION
From political intelligence perspective, it is understandable that a highly influential senator emerging from Ogun East could recalibrate future power equations, particularly ahead of 2027 realignments.
In such environments, political actors naturally reassess influence distribution, loyalty networks, and succession dynamics. However, strategic concern is not equivalent to ownership.
LET HISTORY BE ANALYTICAL, NOT SENTIMENTAL
No actor is required to deny their political interests. That is the nature of politics. But historical reconstruction must remain anchored in evidence, structure, and sequence.
OGD’s emergence as Senator was not a bestowed outcome. It was a constructed political result- built through strategy, organisation, and electoral validation.
Those were present knows it.
Those who participated understand it.
And electoral data reinforces it.
Political gratitude is optional. Political truth is not.
If Governor Dapo Abiodun interprets the outcome differently, that is his political reading.
But those of us were directly involved are equally bound to document the operational reality. OGD did not enter the Senate by political appointment or elite concession. He entered through competitive, mobilisation, strategic alignment, and voter endorsement.
That is not narrative.
This political fact.
Otunba Fatai Sowemimo
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