Every political season comes with its own comedy, but for Ogun State in 2027, Governor Dapo Abiodun appears to be the comedian-in-chief. The lightweight politician has promised President Bola Tinubu “a minimum of two million votes” from Ogun State, and he did it with a straight face. He made the pledge on Thursday, September 10, 2026, at the Dipo Dina International Stadium in Ijebu-Ode, during a Caucus 7202 rally for the APC governorship candidate, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly called Yayi. The crowd cheered. The ballot box, however, has never cheered for him like that.
Now, when a man promises what his own record cannot back up, we say in pidgin, “small yansh dey shake.” Loosely put, it means the big talk is loud, but somewhere underneath it, something is trembling. Let us look at the numbers and see what is shaking.
In 2019, Abiodun won the governorship with 241,670 votes against Adekunle Akinlade’s 222,153. That is a margin of only 19,517 votes, or roughly 2.87 percentage points, in a crowded race. He scored just 35.49 per cent, which means nearly two out of every three voters did not back him. In a state that loves to boast of its political sophistication, the man who became governor did so by a whisker, and most of the electorate looked at him and chose somebody else.
In 2023, he returned to the ballot as a sitting governor, with incumbency, federal visibility and the machinery of the state behind him. He polled roughly 276,000 votes against Ladi Adebutu’s roughly 263,000, a margin of about 2.2 per cent. Adebutu ran a spirited race, but a sitting governor should not be celebrating a result that thin. It was a near-death experience, and Ogun people felt it.
Now place 276,000 beside two million. The pledge is more than seven times the best figure Abiodun has ever recorded. Ogun State has about 2.69 million registered voters, and turnout has historically been low, with fewer than a million votes cast in the last governorship contest. To deliver two million, almost every registered voter in the state would have to collect a PVC, queue peacefully, vote for the APC and go home singing. That is not an electoral projection. It is a prayer point, and not even a well-researched one.
It is also worth noting who else was shouting numbers at that rally. Senator Adeola made his own separate call for two million votes, speaking for himself as a candidate asking to be trusted with a state. The governor spoke on behalf of “all the sons and daughters of Ogun State,” a constituency that has never handed him anything close to that mandate and was not consulted on the matter. Speaking for people is easy. Delivering them is the hard part.
The home-front result is where the story turns uncomfortable. In Ikenne Local Government Area, the governor’s own turf, Adebutu polled 12,472 votes to Abiodun’s 9,133. The man who now promises a state-wide avalanche lost his own local government by more than 3,000 votes. He did narrowly win his polling unit, 147 votes to 142, a five-vote margin that must have had his aides checking the result sheet twice. A win is a win, but when your own neighbours give you a five-vote cushion, modesty should come before quoting seven digits.
Our elders say, Ìlérí ni gbèsè, a promise is a debt. Abiodun has just borrowed two million votes in public, and the creditors, who are the voters, will come calling.
Then there is the baggage he carries into the season. The Awujale succession process has been the subject of litigation and public controversy, with allegations of political interference that the Ogun State Government denies. The Fusengbuwa Ruling House has gone to court, and the state government suspended the process, citing petitions and security concerns. Whatever the courts finally decide, the mood in Ijebuland is not one of celebration, and perception is the currency of politics. The Ijebu are patient, but they have long memories and sharp tongues. As the Yoruba say, Ajá tí yóò sọnù kì í gbọ́ fèrè ọdẹ, the dog that is destined to get lost will not hear the hunter’s whistle. The warnings are already blowing.
The governor’s emergence as the APC’s candidate for the Ogun East senatorial seat, long associated with Otunba Senator Gbenga Daniel, has also opened a fresh intra-party front. Party structure, presidential coattails and local loyalty are three different animals, and a governor cannot assume that one will carry the other. Otunba Senator Daniel has been in this game long enough to know where every bone is buried and who dug the hole.
So here is the simple question. A governor who has never gone beyond about 276,000 votes, who won his first term with 35.49 per cent, and who lost his home local government wants Ogun people to believe he can multiply his best score by seven. It is the political equivalent of a man with 5,000 naira in his pocket promising to buy the whole of Kuto Market in Abeokuta, shops, stalls, goats and all. Nobody doubts the confidence, but the account balance tells another story.
Votes are earned in markets, mosques, churches, palaces and farm settlements, not announced at rallies. Ogun people know the difference between a leader with a following and a politician with a loud microphone, and they will check the figures at the ballot box. The weight of this pledge falls on the one who made it, and he alone will answer for it.
Seun Faleye writes from Ijebu Ode. He is the General Secretary of the Society of Digital Newspaper Owners of Nigeria (SDNON).
