Nigeria recorded total earnings of $143.51bn from crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum exports between 2023 and 2025, underscoring the continued dominance of the hydrocarbon sector in the nation’s external revenue despite ongoing industry challenges.
When converted at prevailing exchange rates over the three-year period, the earnings amount to approximately N174.35tn.
An analysis shows that the country generated $49.83bn in 2023, equivalent to about N31.45tn at an average exchange rate of N633/$1. In 2024, earnings declined slightly to $45.51bn, translating to roughly N70.9tn at an average rate of N1,472/$1. By 2025, revenue rebounded to $48.17bn, estimated at N72tn using an average exchange rate of N1,479/$1, based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Despite the strong overall performance, Nigeria faced mounting pressure in 2025 as crude oil export earnings dropped significantly. Revenue from crude exports fell by $5.31bn year-on-year—from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025—representing a 14.41 per cent decline. The drop has been linked to persistent production issues, global oil price volatility, and structural inefficiencies in the sector.
As a result, the country’s current account surplus narrowed to $14.04bn in 2025, down from $19.03bn recorded in 2024, highlighting the economy’s continued vulnerability to fluctuations in crude oil exports.
Industry experts attribute the decline to longstanding challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment, all of which continue to disrupt output and revenue generation.
However, there are signs of structural shifts within the sector, particularly in domestic refining. The ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is reshaping Nigeria’s trade pattern, with the country increasingly refining crude locally and exporting finished petroleum products.
This transition is already yielding results. Nigeria’s goods account surplus rose to $14.51bn in 2025, up from $13.17bn in 2024, largely driven by increased exports of refined products. The Dangote refinery alone contributed $5.85bn in export value during the year.
Improved local refining capacity also reduced dependence on fuel imports. Imports of refined petroleum products fell sharply to $10bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, marking a 28.88 per cent decrease and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
Nonetheless, challenges persist outside the oil sector. Non-oil imports climbed by 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn, reflecting continued reliance on foreign goods and slow diversification.
External financial obligations also increased. Net service outflows rose to $14.58bn, driven by higher spending on transportation, travel, and insurance, while primary income outflows surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn due to dividend repatriation and interest payments to foreign investors.
Remittances and other secondary income inflows provided some relief, totaling $23.20bn in 2025, though slightly below the $24.88bn recorded in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government has renewed its push for increased oil production to capitalize on global supply opportunities. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, urged operators to scale up output through quick-win strategies such as re-entry programmes and in-field well development.
Although production edged up to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, it has remained below the 1.5 million bpd quota set by OPEC for six consecutive months. February output fluctuated between 1.31 million and 1.46 million bpd, still short of the government’s 2 million bpd target.
Lokpobiri also called on oil companies to fast-track Final Investment Decisions to boost investor confidence and sustain growth in the sector.
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