Nigeria has been advised to assess the outcome of its previous agreements with Russia before signing new deals at the Third Russia–Africa Summit scheduled to hold in Moscow on October 28 and 29, 2026.
The call was made by public affairs analyst Dotun Olayemi, who argued that Nigeria should focus on the benefits previous agreements have delivered to its citizens rather than relying on fresh promises of cooperation.
The summit is expected to feature discussions on trade, energy, security, investment and other areas of cooperation between Russia and African countries. Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, has also indicated that Moscow expects the signing of several intergovernmental agreements and commercial contracts.
However, Olayemi said Nigerians should be more concerned about how such agreements would improve electricity supply, create jobs, reduce living costs and support economic development.
He compared Nigeria’s situation to that of a trader who has repeatedly received promises of goods on credit but must first confirm whether previous commitments were fulfilled before accepting another offer.
One of the most prominent examples, according to him, is Nigeria’s nuclear energy agreement with Russia.
In 2017, Nigeria signed agreements with Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, for cooperation in constructing and operating a nuclear power plant and a nuclear research centre in the country.
The agreements followed earlier discussions between the Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission and Rosatom concerning plans for four nuclear power plants estimated to cost about $20 billion and generate 4,800 megawatts of electricity by 2035.
Geregu in Kogi State and Itu in Akwa Ibom State were identified as preferred locations for the proposed facilities.
The agreements were expected to cover feasibility studies, implementation schedules and financing arrangements.
However, nearly a decade later, no Russian-built nuclear power plant has been completed in Nigeria, while no comprehensive construction timetable has been publicly established for the wider programme.
Olayemi noted that the delay did not necessarily mean Russia had acted in bad faith, explaining that nuclear power projects require substantial financing, regulatory approvals, suitable locations, reliable electricity infrastructure and long-term political commitment.
Nevertheless, he maintained that the situation highlighted the difference between signing an agreement and delivering a project that provides tangible benefits to citizens.
He argued that Nigerians continued to depend heavily on generators and fuel despite years of discussions about expanding the country’s electricity supply.
Nigeria-Russia Trade Remains Focused on Commodities
Olayemi also questioned whether Nigeria’s trade relationship with Russia had produced the level of industrial development frequently associated with bilateral cooperation agreements.
According to United Nations Comtrade data cited in his analysis, Nigeria imported approximately $676 million worth of goods from Russia in 2024, compared with about $1.51 billion in 2023.
Nigeria’s major imports from Russia include mineral fuels and petroleum products, wheat and other cereals, fertilisers, and fish.
Although these products are important to Nigeria’s energy supply, food security and agricultural sector, Olayemi argued that the trade relationship had yet to demonstrate substantial progress in industrial machinery, manufacturing and technology transfer.
He pointed to available Comtrade-derived figures showing that Nigeria’s imports from Russia under the machinery, nuclear reactors and boilers category amounted to approximately $12,690 in 2024.
He cautioned that the figure should be interpreted carefully because international trade classifications and product categories can change. However, he said the broader pattern suggested that trade between both countries remained largely centred on commodities rather than industrial equipment and technology.
The analyst also highlighted the relatively small share of Nigeria in Russia’s global export market.
Russian Ambassador to Nigeria Andrey Podelyshev reportedly stated that Russia’s worldwide exports reached $434 billion in 2024.
Against this figure, Nigeria’s imports of $676 million from Russia represented approximately 0.16 per cent of Russia’s global exports.
Olayemi said this illustrated Nigeria’s limited position in Russia’s overall commercial activities.
He further cited 2023 figures showing that Nigeria imported goods worth about $1.51 billion from Russia but exported only approximately $10.02 million to the country, with cocoa products among Nigeria’s exports.
According to him, the imbalance raises questions about whether the relationship is generating sufficient opportunities for Nigerian businesses to export finished products, develop industries and gain access to advanced technologies.
Russia and Africa Plan to Review Previous Commitments
The analyst noted that Russia and the African Union are expected to review their 2023–2026 action plans, identify areas where progress has been inadequate and adopt a new cooperation plan covering 2027–2029.
He argued that the planned review provides an opportunity for Nigeria to demand clear explanations about commitments that have not been fulfilled.
Olayemi also advised the Nigerian government to consider the economic and geopolitical challenges confronting Russia, including the cost of its ongoing war and the effects of international sanctions on payments, shipping, insurance and access to certain technologies.
These challenges, he said, could affect Russia’s ability to finance and execute large infrastructure projects abroad.
He therefore urged Nigerian officials to distinguish between agreements backed by credible financing and implementation plans and announcements that might attract public attention without leading to actual projects.
Proposal for a Russia-Nigeria Promise Tracker
To improve accountability, Olayemi proposed the establishment of a Russia–Nigeria Promise Tracker to monitor bilateral agreements and determine whether both countries are meeting their commitments.
Under the proposal, every agreement would be documented with its signing date, parties involved, financial value, responsible government agencies, source of funding, implementation deadline and current status.
Projects would be classified under five categories: funded, in progress, stalled, cancelled or unverifiable.
The tracker would cover five major areas: defence and security, energy, infrastructure, education and technology, and trade and finance.
Olayemi said progress should be measured through verifiable results rather than official statements.
For instance, energy agreements should be assessed by the amount of electricity generated and connected to the national grid. Infrastructure projects should be evaluated by the kilometres of roads or railways completed, while agricultural agreements should be measured by fertiliser deliveries and their impact on farmers.
Education and technology agreements should also be assessed by the number of Nigerian students receiving scholarships, the skills transferred and the local jobs created.
He urged Nigeria’s delegation to ensure that every new agreement signed at the Moscow summit clearly states its total cost, financing arrangements, implementation timeline and expected benefits.
The government should also disclose the extent to which Russia has fulfilled earlier commitments, the number of Nigerian jobs expected from new projects, the technology that would be transferred and the provisions for resolving disputes or withdrawing from agreements that fail.
He further recommended the creation of a publicly accessible online dashboard that would be updated every three months to allow citizens to monitor progress.
Media Urged to Track Unfulfilled Agreements
Olayemi also called on Nigerian media organisations to strengthen their oversight of bilateral relations by comparing new announcements with previous commitments.
He said fresh energy agreements should be examined alongside the 2017 nuclear cooperation deal, while new defence and security arrangements should be assessed against earlier promises in the same areas.
Similarly, new scholarship announcements should be compared with previous educational commitments to determine whether they have produced measurable results.
According to him, such scrutiny would help prevent repeated announcements from being mistaken for actual achievements.
Olayemi stressed that Nigeria should not abandon its diplomatic relationship with Russia, noting that the country has the right to diversify its international partnerships while seeking investment, technology and economic opportunities.
However, he maintained that diplomatic engagement must produce measurable benefits for Nigerians rather than simply generate headlines and official statements.
He concluded that the most important question surrounding the Russia–Africa Summit should be whether the agreements would improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians and when such benefits would become visible.
Olayemi, a public affairs analyst, wrote from Lagos.
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