The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) identified Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba as states expecting longer-than-normal rainfall periods in 2026, Aviation and Aerospace Development Minister Festus Keyamo announced during the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction.
Early and late arrivals
The agency projects early rainfall onset in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and portions of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba. Only Borno State is expected to experience a delayed start.
Several states—including parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger—should see rainfall ending earlier than usual. Conversely, Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna will likely experience delayed season endings.
Parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States face shorter-than-normal rainy seasons overall.
Rainfall amounts vary
Most of Nigeria will see normal annual rainfall compared to historical averages, NiMet indicated. However, above-normal precipitation is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory. Below-normal rainfall is expected in portions of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun.
Dry spell warnings
The agency cautioned about severe dry spells—periods exceeding 15 days without rain—affecting parts of Oyo and Ogun States between March and May. Moderate dry spells are anticipated across Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara.
During June through August, severe dry spells potentially lasting 21 days could impact portions of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.
The “Little Dry Season” or “August Break” is predicted to begin in late July, with severe, prolonged effects over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo—bringing 28 to 40 days of minimal rainfall. Ondo, parts of Kwara, and Edo should expect moderate effects.
Temperature outlook
Daytime and nighttime temperatures will likely run warmer than long-term averages across most of the country during January, February, March, and May.
NiMet emphasized that sporadic significant rains in southern Nigeria should not be mistaken for the official rainy season start. The agency advised those involved in rain-fed agriculture and rainfall-dependent activities to consult the published onset dates or contact NiMet directly for guidance.
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