Nigeria’s hopes of faster economic growth in 2026 will depend partly on how much crude oil it can produce, how well it protects energy infrastructure and whether current reforms hold.
Forecasts differ. The World Bank projects real GDP growth of 4.4 per cent this year, the IMF 4.1 per cent and PwC Nigeria 4.2 per cent. The Federal Government’s target is about 4.68 per cent, while the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) is more optimistic, putting growth at up to seven per cent.
Oil remains the country’s main source of foreign exchange and a major source of government revenue, so attention has turned to production levels and the security of pipelines and other installations, especially in the Niger Delta. Crude theft and pipeline vandalism are among the issues that could shape economic performance in the months ahead.
Tantita’s role
Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), led by High Chief Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, provides pipeline surveillance and asset protection in the region. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has kept private security contractors like Tantita involved in efforts to protect oil assets and curb illegal activities.
Working with security agencies and other stakeholders, the company says it has focused on guarding oil infrastructure, identifying illegal connections and helping to curb crude theft and pipeline vandalism. Better security is expected to reduce production disruptions, limit revenue losses and give oil companies a more predictable operating environment.
Tantita’s Media Consultant, Dr Paul Bebenimibo, who is also Special Adviser to Tompolo, said the company’s work had improved crude oil production, environmental safety and economic activity in the Niger Delta. He spoke on the sidelines of an award presented to Tantita by Blueprint Newspapers for its contributions to pipeline security and national development.
According to him, the company has recorded progress since taking a major role in pipeline surveillance in 2022. “Over the years, awards have been coming in, and that shows that Tantita is really doing the job very well,” he said.
Bebenimibo said safer oil-producing communities had allowed fishing and farming to recover, and that Tantita remained committed to helping Nigeria raise output to 2.5 million barrels per day. He credited part of the company’s approach to Tompolo’s knowledge of the region’s terrain, creeks and communities.
The company has also deployed drones for monitoring. “We have acquired drones that are now picking up every illegal activity that is going on in the creek,” Bebenimibo said.
Jobs and community programmes
Bebenimibo said Tantita employs more than 60,000 youths, paid monthly, as part of efforts to offer legitimate livelihoods and discourage oil theft, illegal bunkering and other crimes. He added that the company runs skills acquisition programmes and gives grants and business support to young people, women and men in host communities.
“Tantita is not just employing the youths. It is also giving them skills and promoting their businesses in the area by giving grants to youths, women and men,” he said.
He also described journalists as important partners in publicising the company’s work, and said Tantita had built a correspondents’ secretariat in Delta State. Similar facilities are planned for other Niger Delta states, along with one for journalists at the national level.
The approach reflects the view that security measures in the Niger Delta deliver more lasting results when paired with jobs, skills and community participation. Its long-term impact, however, will depend on sustained investment, effective monitoring and cooperation among host communities, oil firms, regulators and security agencies.
Growth beyond oil security
Higher crude output could boost government revenue and foreign exchange inflows, but the wider outlook depends on whether reforms raise household incomes, productivity and job creation.
In its report, Unlocking Nigeria’s Reform Dividend: From Macroeconomic Stabilisation to Inclusive Growth, PwC Nigeria pointed to gains in foreign exchange stability, inflation, reserves, revenue mobilisation and capital inflows. The report was prepared by executives including Olusegun Zaccheaus, Pedro Omontuemhen and Akolawole Odunlami.
PwC said Nigeria entered the second half of 2026 on firmer ground, with real GDP growth of 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by ICT, finance and insurance, construction and agriculture. Headline inflation eased to 15.91 per cent in June, the naira traded at N1,379.68 to the dollar, and gross foreign reserves rose 38.3 per cent year-on-year to $51.46bn.
PwC also warned that household affordability remained under pressure, private-sector financing was tight and growth was concentrated in a few sectors. It listed geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility and weaker global growth as external risks.
Energy costs are a particular strain. In April 2026, diesel prices rose 43.67 per cent year-on-year, kerosene 34.12 per cent, petrol 23.69 per cent and liquefied petroleum gas 10.43 per cent, according to figures cited in the outlook. Higher fuel prices push up transport, logistics and business costs and squeeze household budgets. Expanding refined-product supply, easing distribution bottlenecks and keeping the foreign exchange market stable could help moderate the pressure.
Industry backing for higher output
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has pledged to work with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to reach a production target of three million barrels per day by 2030.
PENGASSAN President Bosun Olabiyi-Agoro made the commitment during a visit to the NUPRC headquarters, according to a statement by the commission’s Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu. He said the union was ready to help unlock the sector’s production potential, and named workers’ freedom of association and contract staffing as priorities for his administration.
Meeting the target will take investment, effective regulation, operational efficiency, better infrastructure and sustained security in producing areas. Tantita’s pipeline surveillance is expected to remain part of efforts to protect oil assets and cut losses from theft and vandalism, though whether that translates into higher output will also depend on operators, investors and regulators addressing other constraints.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s push for faster growth will not rest on oil security alone. It will depend on turning protected assets and higher production into revenue, productive investment, jobs and better living standards.
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