The Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) has raised concerns over the potential economic and security risks that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could pose to African maritime nations.
In a statement issued by the centre, SEREC noted that countries across Africa, particularly those heavily dependent on imports, could face serious economic pressures if the geopolitical standoff disrupts global trade routes.
The communiqué, signed by SEREC’s Head of Research, Eugene Nweke, warned that rising global oil prices and shipping costs could trigger higher fuel and food inflation across African economies. According to the centre, the situation may also place additional pressure on local currencies, increasing the likelihood of depreciation.
Nweke explained that prolonged instability between the two countries could lead to volatile oil prices, higher freight charges, and increased war-risk insurance premiums for vessels. These developments, he said, may further intensify global inflationary pressures.
SEREC also cautioned that maritime security could deteriorate if tensions escalate, with shipping routes becoming increasingly unstable. As a result, African nations may need to strengthen naval cooperation and surveillance efforts to protect key trade corridors, especially within the Gulf of Guinea.
To mitigate potential shocks, the centre advised Nigeria and other regional partners to invest oil windfall revenues in economic stabilisation measures and infrastructure development rather than recurrent spending.
It also recommended ensuring consistent crude supply to domestic refineries, boosting maritime security collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea, expanding strategic petroleum reserves, and promoting deeper regional trade integration to reduce reliance on extra-African shipping routes.
The communiqué further stressed that Nigeria’s ability to withstand external economic shocks will depend not only on gains from crude exports but also on sound fiscal discipline, improved domestic refining capacity, diversified trade partnerships, and stronger maritime competitiveness.
SEREC added that without coordinated national policies, the stabilising potential of major refining projects such as the Dangote Refinery could be weakened.
“The US–Iran confrontation goes beyond a geopolitical dispute. It represents a significant stress test for global trade and maritime systems. Nigeria’s resilience will ultimately depend on prudent fiscal management and stronger maritime cooperation,” the statement concluded.
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