Nigeria’s $20 billion Dangote oil refinery is currently scaling back crude purchases, a decision that signals ongoing operational challenges. The move could keep global gasoline prices rising into 2026, and Nigerians have been reacting.
According to analysts and tanker-monitoring data, the Lagos-based facility is buying less than 300,000 barrels of crude per day this month, a drop of more than 50% from its July peak, and less than half its designed capacity.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that the decline includes both domestic supplies and imported barrels.
Since the start of operations earlier this year, the refinery has suspended West Africa’s fuel trade, vowing to end Nigeria’s overreliance on imported gasoline.
However, other unfortunate factors like sudden outages, worker disruptions, and equipment repairs have forced repeated slowdowns in production.
Dangote refinery’s gasoline-making unit, the largest of its kind in Africa, has suffered many stoppages this year and might undergo another shutdown early next year for major maintenance, according to intelligence firm IIR Energy.
About 150,000 barrels per day of Dangote’s crude feedstock in October comes from a new supply deal with state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Co. (NNPC). The remainder is regularly sourced from the U.S., but data show that no West Texas Intermediate cargoes has been bought for November.
The slowdown proves that Aliko’s company might be operating well below capacity, possibly due to maintenance constraints and efficiency bottlenecks.
Economists have said that a working Dangote refinery could end the $17 billion annual gasoline trade from Europe to Africa, a flow that has long undermined regional fuel markets.
Meeting roughly 60% of the country’s petrol demand, the Dangote refinery is projected to save Nigeria up to $10 billion in foreign exchange in 2026 alone.
