TotalEnergies has broken down 3 potential long-term scenarios for the global energy system, leading up to 2050. The oil company recently had its say in the seventh edition of its Energy Outlook report.
According to TotalEnergies, about 4.6 billion people currently lack sufficient access to energy to aid basic human development, and the energy sector is still a major source of emissions, especially from electricity generation, transportation and heat production.
The company stated that it is a collective responsibility to decrease emissions from electricity generation and bring down the carbon intensity of transportation and heat generation for industrial and residential use.
Since the Paris Agreement was agreed in 2015, global energy demand has risen over the past decade, while emissions have also grown over the same period.
“The stakes are clear. We must collectively reduce emissions from electricity generation, the leading global source of energy-related emissions with 14 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, and reduce the carbon intensity of transportation and heat generation for industrial and residential use,” it read.
The three energy scenarios for 2050 are as follows:
1. The Momentum Scenario:
It describes this as a forward-looking approach, which assumes stronger policy action in developed economies, including carbon neutrality in OECD nations by 2050 and in China by 2060.
TotalEnergies is expecting quicker electrification, a major decrease in the usage of coal, and more adoption of low-carbon fuels.
The company, however, predicted that fossil fuels would still cover half of the growth in energy demand in India and the rest of the world due to a lack of low-carbon investments.
2. The Rupture Scenario:
This one will restrict warming to below 2°C, in accordance with the Paris Agreement pact. It assumes a quick coal phase-out, large-scale electrification and would trigger a projected temperature increase of 1.7°C to 1.9°C.
“The realisation of this scenario seems out of reach at present, given the current state of geopolitical tensions, as it would require considerably enhanced multilateral cooperation in favour of global decarbonisation,” the report read.
3. The Trends Scenario:
The final scenario predicts that the present public policies, especially in China and Europe, will continue without major acceleration.
Coal will decline gradually, oil demand will peak around 2040, and gas use will stabilise by the mid part of the century. This pathway would lead to a global temperature rise of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100.
“However, infrastructure constraints, particularly electricity grids, geopolitical tensions and cost barriers to these technologies limit their large-scale deployment,” it added.
