Internal party sources are sounding alarms over what they describe as Governor Dapo Abiodun’s deliberate challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s authority within the All Progressives Congress, a move that echoes the bitter power struggles that defined the 2023 presidential primaries.
The latest friction centres on alleged directive breaches by the Ogun governor, who insiders say orchestrated a coordinated campaign of ward executives—some reportedly coerced into loyalty oaths—to issue public statements that directly contradict orders from the APC National Working Committee (NWC).
The NWC had explicitly instructed all parties in Ogun to maintain the status quo while it investigates the ongoing state chapter crisis. The directive carried implicit weight, believed to have emanated from President Tinubu’s office.
Yet, according to party loyalists frustrated by events, Governor Abiodun’s camp proceeded with carefully orchestrated public releases anyway—a calculated move that many describe as nothing short of insubordination against the national leadership.
What makes the governor’s manoeuvre particularly brazen is the precarious position of Ogun’s political structure. State and local government executives in Ogun have been operating beyond their mandate for months; their continued tenure made possible solely through the goodwill and tolerance of the NWC. That they would now openly defy the same leadership keeping them in office has left party insiders incredulous.
“It’s pure provocation,” one party insider remarked privately. “The governor knows these officials exist at the pleasure of the national party, yet he’s using them to challenge that very authority.”
For weeks, the national leadership maintained a measured silence on the Ogun crisis, a silence many political watchers attributed to careful observation of signals from the presidency. When the NWC finally issued its decisive statement, seasoned observers interpreted it as a watershed moment: Tinubu had given the green light for decisive action.
Now, as political analysts assess the implications of Governor Abiodun’s latest move, many are asking a more troubling question: Is the governor preparing to “go for broke”? Whispers within political circles suggest he may be exploring overtures to opposition parties, a nuclear option capable of destabilising the entire APC structure in the Southwest and weakening Tinubu’s political hold heading into the 2027 elections.
The stakes could hardly be higher.
Ogun State represents the jewel in the APC’s Southwest crown. It is the only state in the region where the party maintains genuine cohesion, boasting heavyweight political figures including Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Senator Gbenga Daniel, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, and Governor Abiodun himself, all solidly within the APC fold.
This rare unity gives Ogun something no other Southwest state possesses: the capacity to reliably deliver approximately 90 percent of its vote to President Tinubu in 2027. More than that, Ogun’s political influence transcends its borders, spilling naturally into Lagos, Oyo, and Osun due to geographical proximity and long-standing political networks.
Analysts who study electoral mathematics view Ogun as the indispensable foundation of the president’s Southwest strategy. Any significant fracture in the state’s APC structure, they warn, would send shockwaves through the entire region.
The surrounding political landscape makes this calculation even more critical. In Lagos, the 2023 “Obidient” surge that mobilised youth voters, combined with shifting sentiments in northern Nigeria, threatens to transform the state into a fiercely contested battleground. In Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde’s tightening grip on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) continues to squeeze APC space. Osun presents its own complications, with the governorship election arriving soon and factional tensions, particularly between Adebayo Aregbesola’s supporters and Iyiola Omisore’s political calculations, complicating the path forward.
Ondo and Ekiti, by comparison, offer lukewarm political climates that provide little numerical buffer for the APC’s regional strength.
Given these realities, Ogun’s stability is not merely a state concern—it is existential for the APC’s Southwest dominance.
Political observers now face an unsettling reality: Governor Abiodun’s willingness to openly challenge directives understood to carry President Tinubu’s personal endorsement suggests he may be serious about exploring what some call the “spoiler route.” His latest public defiance, they argue, represents the opening move in a calculated gambit that could shake the political foundations of the entire region.
What unfolds in the coming weeks will likely determine not just the political future of Ogun’s APC chapter, but the broader electoral arithmetic the president will face heading into 2027. The consequences extend far beyond one state’s internal politics—they threaten the very foundation of the administration’s Southwest strategy.
Seunmanuel Faleye is a brand and communications strategist. He is a covert writer and an overt creative head. He publishes Apple’s Bite International Magazine.
