The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026. This comes amid widespread forecasts of an oversupply, and the world has been reacting.
An OPEC report recently showed that the world oil supply is expected to match demand next year in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.
OPEC+, which includes Russia and other allies, has increased its output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day – or around 2.7 per cent of global supply – since April.
In its monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC confirmed that the global economy’s growth trend remains firm.
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, even though demand is steady, OPEC+, in October, reduced output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group’s output hike agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.
Reuters calculation based on the report showed that expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 means that the world market will experience a marginal surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group continues to pump at October’s rate.
Recall that October’s report had projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall of 700,000 bpd.
