Nigeria’s political landscape has become a Dead Sea, a place where leadership potential is routinely suffocated. This paralysis is not due to lack of talent or ambition. It is the consequence of a rigid, self-imposed doctrine known as ZONING
What began as a stabilising mechanism for a fragile, multi-ethnic Nation has evolved into a structural defect that undermines merit, weakens institutions, and reduces the Nigerian presidency from a National executive office to a chieftaincy stool passed around by a small circle of political elites who operate more like board members of a holding company than leaders of a sovereign nation. When leadership is treated as an inheritance rather than an earned responsibility, the incentive to deliver results vanishes.
Zoning was originally conceived as a pragmatic peace arrangement for a country scarred by civil war, coups, and decades of mistrust. The idea was simple, rotate power between regions to prevent the fear of domination by any group. In theory, it was a balm for national cohesion. In 2026, it has become a cartel-like system that prioritises geography over competence. It has entrenched a political culture where the question of origin overshadows the question of ability, and where leadership is treated as a turn-by-turn entitlement rather than a responsibility earned through vision and performance.
As the 2027 election cycle approaches, the national conversation has become dangerously consumed by the question of whose turn it is, a term known as ”The Emi l’okan syndrome”. This fixation has overshadowed the urgent crises confronting the country where a thousand five hundred naira to a dollar exchange rate, a collapsing national grid, widespread insecurity, and a cost of living crisis, that have pushed millions into poverty are now treated as secondary concerns. Instead of demanding solutions, the political class and their supporters are engrossed in the arithmetic of regional entitlement. This is the fatal flaw of zoning. It treats competence as a regional commodity.
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By insisting that the next president must come from a particular zone, political parties automatically disqualify the majority of the nation’s most capable individuals before the first ballot is cast. A brilliant economist from the wrong region is side-lined in favour of a loyalist whose only qualification is geographic alignment.
In this April of 2026, the consequences of this thinking are on full display. The current administration and its ruling party insist that power must remain in the South to complete a tenure, regardless of performance indicators. The current campaigns are a masterclass in policy avoidance. Politicians are not debating fiscal strategies to curb a 33% inflation rate or presenting blueprints for a 21st-century education system. Instead, their campaign rhetoric is centered on dubious political arithmetic, counting how many years each region has occupied the Presidential Villa since 1960.
Even the newer political movements like ADC and Labour Party, once celebrated for their issue-based approach, are being drawn into this outdated framework. They are being pressured to zone their tickets to appear politically serious, thereby reinforcing the very system they once sought to challenge. This is a theft of competence, a system that tells the brightest minds to wait their turn while the country bleeds.
The upcoming election is already being framed as a battle for regional entitlement rather than a contest of ideas. The APC maintains its incumbency argument, suggesting President Tinubu must complete eight years to maintain a balance of power. In response, the opposition is split between those who insist that merit should override informal agreements and those who fear that challenging zoning will fracture their base. Even the Obidient movements that once championed merit and reform are now being urged by some factions to embrace southern zoning as a survival strategy. This contradiction exposes the deep entanglement of Nigerian politics in identity based calculations. It is a paradox the country can no longer afford.
Zoning has become a convenient shield for the political class. When voters are told that their son is in power, they are conditioned to endure hardship as a badge of ethnic loyalty. This psychological manipulation keeps citizens arguing over maps while their pockets are emptied by inflation, unemployment, and insecurity.
In the world of security, this geographic obsession is even more critical and potentially fatal. Bandits and kidnappers do not check a victim’s state of origin before they attack. The idea that citizens are safer when a president comes from their region has been disproven time and again. Having a son of the soil in office has not prevented massacres in Plateau, abductions in Zamfara, or attacks in Kaduna. Security is a function of intelligence, equipment, training, and political will, not the birthplace of the Commander-in-Chief.
Nigeria does not need more elaborate zoning formulas or refined power sharing agreements. It needs a radical shift toward a Performance Based Republic. The country must abandon informal pacts and demand that political parties open their tickets to the most capable candidates, regardless of region.
A genuine shift away from rotational politics requires a national Competence Audit that forces political parties to prioritise capability over geography. Primaries must become issue driven and anchored on measurable performance indicators that reflect the scale of Nigeria’s challenges.
Candidates should be assessed on their ability to reduce the cost of governance by at least forty percent, double national power generation within four years, stabilise the currency through structural reforms rather than continuous borrowing, strengthen security institutions with modern intelligence and operational capacity, and deliver a twenty-first century education system that prepares young Nigerians for global competitiveness. These are the standards that define leadership in a nation seeking renewal, not the informal agreements that have dominated the political space for decades.
We must reject the Emi l’okan syndrome or the narrative of it is our turn. It offers none of these solutions. It is not the language of patriotism but the vocabulary of a cartel that treats national leadership as a rotating privilege rather than a mandate to solve urgent problems. Nigeria can not continue to function as a federation of regional entitlements while its citizens struggle for survival. The country must abandon the politics of turn taking and embrace a future where merit, vision, and measurable results determine who leads.
A Call to the Nigerian Citizen:
The responsibility now lies with the electorate. Nigerians must reject the zoning distraction and demand leadership based on competence, vision, and integrity. The next time a politician declares that it is their region’s turn, citizens must ask a simple question: to do what exactly? If a candidate cannot articulate a clear plan for economic recovery, security reform, and national development, they do not deserve your vote. Stop asking where a candidate is from. Start asking what they have built, what they have solved, and what they can deliver.
If we continue to vote with the same mindset, we will continue to harvest the same poverty. The map has failed us. It is time to try merit before the house collapses on all of us. Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The zoning cartel has had its turn. Now it is time for competence to take the stage.
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